Welcome to Baeranteed MLS!
Your guide to betting MLS
There’s few simple joys in life that outstrip winning a bet. Whether it’s a $1 on whether you can hit a shot from 20 feet or $1500 for winning your fantasy football league, the feeling remains the same. At least for me.
With this new venture, we’re going to be chasing that feeling in one of the most difficult ways imaginable: betting on MLS games.
Much has been talked about over the years about how difficult it is to bet on MLS games. But with gambling becoming legal in many states across the US, now is the time to really dig in. In addition to 1-2 commentary and analysis per week, I’ll be putting together a betting guide for you for each MLS weekend (and midweek if it’s a busy one). One very important thing to remember: there’s three possible results in soccer! This is obviously reflected in the odds where you can get a favorite at greater than +110 (meaning if you bet $100, you win $110) odds.
Before the fun begins I thought it would be a good to offer a few tips on what to expect when betting MLS.
It’s going to be hard
MLS isn’t one of those leagues where there’s big favorites who should be expected to clean up against the also rans. LAFC losing on the road to RSL this year is something that will not come to a shock to anybody who follows MLS consistently, despite the relative talent difference between the two clubs.
But the odds may be off
Oddsmakers have generally been slow to MLS trends over the years. For example, they still give “big name” teams better odds than they probably should based off of form. All you have to do is look at Decision Day last year when LAFC were -233 favorites despite generally having a poor season and coming into the game after two wins against bad teams and a loss at the Earthquakes. Also, the LA Galaxy were somehow favorites on the road over the Vancouver Whitecaps! That doesn’t make any sense.
When in doubt, go with the home team
MLS has long been a league where home teams get better results than their counterparts from across the world. Home teams have won at least 50% of their games in every season but one since 2012 with the only outlier being in 2014 when they won 48.3%. A lot of that comes down to the grueling travel schedule and different conditions teams are forced to face. Some of that could be alleviated with the fact that teams will almost entirely be playing within their own conference in 2021, but that didn’t help last season when home teams won 50.2% of the games.
That’s all for now. Come back Wednesday for my thoughts on MLS futures!
Vamos!!!